Authority and the capacity to act come apart.
Everyone expects
The government decides to take back control.
What I found
The government can decide anything. It just can’t do it.
A government recognises a dangerous dependency and decides to act. The suppliers have gone. The skills have faded. The infrastructure is committed elsewhere. The authority exists, but the decision cannot be carried out.
The systems that give a state its capabilities also create dependencies beyond its command. Finance, technology, trade and information respond through many other actors.
The scenario follows closing windows: practical freedom can disappear before the need to use it becomes undeniable. The question is what can still be changed, which changes require cooperation, and which choices preserve room to act later.
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This is an original public scenario. Bring your subject, research or planning question to develop a world and explore its consequences.
Strategic foresight and scenario developmentThey didn’t invade. They made sure nobody could live there.
Everyone expectsRobot wars will be about killing.
Armies that mass to attack are seen and hit within minutes, so taking territory costs more than it’s worth. In this scenario, an aggressor stops trying.
Follow how it could happenThe forest survives because nobody will buy its wood.
Everyone expectsForests are saved by agreements and incentives.
Suppose a superpower confronted with a climate emergency intervenes to make a forest’s products commercially unusable, then leaves. The premise is not conquest.
Follow how it could happenDo as we say, or no rain.
Everyone expectsGeoengineering is a shared climate response.
What if an intervention that improves conditions for one country worsens them for another?
Follow how it could happenA subject, a technology, a question or a body of research.