A big idea with 6 connected futures
Defence, citizenship, representation. Choose your plan.
The last great bundle comes apart.
What happens when functions bundled together as the state become separate services, contracts and memberships?
Military protection becomes an insurance product. Citizenship becomes a subscription. Representation becomes something agents organise and fund. The services still exist, but their relationships to territory, obligation and one another change.
The world is not simply one of weaker governments. New providers acquire constituencies, obligations and powers of their own. Formal authority may remain while the practical capacity to act migrates elsewhere.
Add a brick only when the bricks below give a reason for it.
Your army’s on a subscription. So is the enemy’s.
ProblemSolution
An alliance becomes a portfolio of contracts.
Drones, software and doctrine change faster than a small country can afford to replace them.
A company keeps forces ready. You pay a monthly premium for a guaranteed response.
Forces waiting for a war earn nothing. The provider needs more customers.
Several countries hold promises against one pool of troops and robots. Investors buy the contracts for their yield.
A war spreads and four clients claim at once. It’s AIG in 2008, with tanks.
A market grows to price, trade and reinsure military obligations.
The same provider holds contracts with two countries now at war with each other.
Switch countries without moving house.
Everyone expectsDigital citizenship helps people move.
What if membership providers bundled the services associated with a country across territorial boundaries?
Follow how it could happenYour army’s on a subscription. So is the enemy’s.
Everyone expectsSmall countries buy their own armed forces.
Military research and obsolescence accelerate until smaller countries cannot keep up.
Follow how it could happen£10 a month buys you an MP.
Everyone expectsAI changes political messaging.
What if people subscribed to an organisation that recruited representatives and funded their political work?
Follow how it could happenMichigan just deputised Batman.
Everyone expectsExoskeletons help people at work.
Advanced armour and physical augmentation go on sale. Wealthy enthusiasts do not all use them for industrial work.
Follow how it could happenThe government can decide anything. It just can’t do it.
Everyone expectsThe government decides to take back control.
A government recognises a dangerous dependency and decides to act. The suppliers have gone. The skills have faded. The infrastructure is committed elsewhere.
Follow how it could happenMiss a payment, and the cool room won’t let you in.
Everyone expectsCities add trees and air conditioning.
A family pays every month for four places in a cooled shelter ten minutes from home. They have never used them.
Follow how it could happenCommission a paradigm exploration, a set of scenarios or a workshop with your team.