A market in military protection.
Everyone expects
Small countries buy their own armed forces.
What I found
Your army’s on a subscription. So is the enemy’s.
Military research and obsolescence accelerate until smaller countries cannot keep up. Buying protection from a specialist company becomes more attractive than funding the whole cycle alone.
The provider already maintains equipment, expertise and readiness. The client buys a promise of protection. A market grows around financing, rating, trading and reinsuring the contracts.
Follow the arrangements further. What counts as a claim? How much capability was promised? The same forces support several commitments, and one spreading crisis activates them together.
A provider can acquire obligations on both sides of a conflict. Rival companies become strategic actors. The story is no longer simply about outsourcing a service; finance has become part of the organisation of military power.
This is where my experience in credit derivatives and defence futures meet: a new bargain, a new market, and the world produced by the promises it makes.
It’s AIG in 2008, with tanks.
Military technology, doctrine and personnel skills become obsolete faster than smaller states can afford to replace them. Specialist companies offer access to forces and equipment for a premium.
A small country gets a guaranteed response force for a monthly premium, without paying for a standing army. The provider earns from troops it already funds. Investors get a new asset: security with a yield.
Companies do the research and provide the military assets as an insurance service. The quality and quantity of equipment, and what counts as a claim, become pay-to-play.
A market grows around financing, rating, trading and reinsuring protection. What begins as equipment changes to providing soldiers and robots, planning and the entire toolkit of war. Warships, tanks and fighter jets can all become part of it. Defence Obligation Contracts become the tool of choice to defend your country.
The same forces get sold to four countries, and one crisis calls in every contract at once. It’s AIG in 2008, with tanks.
A war that spreads draws more countries in, and the company cannot service all its clients’ claims. The same company may provide equipment for both sides. Companies end up at war with each other.
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This is an original public scenario. Bring your subject, research or planning question to develop a world and explore its consequences.
Strategic wargaming and decision gamesAdd a brick only when the bricks below give a reason for it.
Your army’s on a subscription. So is the enemy’s.
ProblemSolution
An alliance becomes a portfolio of contracts.
Drones, software and doctrine change faster than a small country can afford to replace them.
A company keeps forces ready. You pay a monthly premium for a guaranteed response.
Forces waiting for a war earn nothing. The provider needs more customers.
Several countries hold promises against one pool of troops and robots. Investors buy the contracts for their yield.
A war spreads and four clients claim at once. It’s AIG in 2008, with tanks.
A market grows to price, trade and reinsure military obligations.
The same provider holds contracts with two countries now at war with each other.
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